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Event Recap: The Looming LNG Glut – Market Assessment & Risks

by Toronto Climate Observatory

🔎 Event Recap: The Looming LNG Glut – Market Assessment & Risks

This week, the TCO co-hosted a webinar with Schulich Centre of Excellence in Responsible Business (COERB) and Trottier Family Foundation exploring the growing risks of a global LNG oversupply and what it means for markets, policymakers, and the energy transition.

💡 Key insights from Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA)’s Clark Williams-Derry:

📉 A glut is on the horizon Between 2025 and 2029, global LNG export capacity is projected to grow by ~40%, led by massive buildouts in the U.S., Qatar, Canada, and beyond. Global supply is set to outstrip demand well into the 2030s, putting financial pressure on new LNG projects and heightening the risk of stranded assets.

đŸĒĢ Demand is projected to decline Europe, Japan, and South Korea - together accounting for 50% of global LNG demand - are all on long-term paths to reduce gas use. Meanwhile, demand in developing economies like China, India, Pakistan, and Vietnam is constrained by affordability, energy security concerns, competition from renewables, and policy headwinds.

🌱 Climate risks are real Prolonged oversupply could slow the energy transition by making fossil gas artificially competitive with renewables - especially in emerging markets.

💰 Investor implications Falling spot prices and weaker margins raise tough questions: Who is exposed? Which projects are resilient? And how can investors distinguish between short-term gains and long-term risks?

This session highlighted the need for granular, realistic analysis when assessing new LNG infrastructure in a rapidly changing energy landscape. A big thank you to our speakers and co-hosts for this compelling, data-rich conversation!

In case you missed it, watch the webinar recording here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OivNxX8ffdc